KHULUF, ISMAATUL (2019) SISTEM PREDIKSI PENJUALAN BERAS DI UD. SUMBER TANI LAMONGAN DENGAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (BROWN). undergraduate thesis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Gresik.
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Abstract
UD. TANI SOURCE is a business engaged in the field of rice production and services located in the city of Lamongan. Field services conducted grinder milling of farmers to be used as rice. As for the field of production is producing rice that has been packaged for sale to consumers. The problem is how much rice sales in the coming months can not be known how much rice is needed. Rice Sales Prediction System at UD. SUMBER TANI Lamongan aims to find out the sale of rice in the next month in UD. SUMBER TANI Lamongan. This research uses Triple Exponential Smoothing (Brown) method. Tests were carried out on every period from Januari 2014 - Agustus 2017 testing with 9 different alpha values that is alpha 0.1 - 0.9 using 3 months, 6 months and 12 months reference previous. Predicted results will be comparable with the actual number of outpatient visits to determine the value of error in prediction using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). From the average of the three predictive test analyzes, yields the smallest MAPE value ie 6 months reference with the many alpha value of 0.1.
| Item Type: | Thesis (undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Engineering > Informatics Engineering Engineering |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering > Informatics Engineering Study Program |
| Depositing User: | tri risdianto saifullah |
| Date Deposited: | 03 Jul 2019 12:47 |
| Last Modified: | 03 Jul 2019 12:47 |
| URI: | http://eprints.umg.ac.id/id/eprint/1655 |
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